Asymmetric travel directions of shape recognized UAPs over the last century
Jack Sliwa-Technologist. 091720
A detailed Boolean computer search of a very large personal and global UAP database of sightings tentatively identified a marked historical shortage (-34.1%) of UAPs traveling in the general East-West directions as opposed to the general North-South directions. Several possible standalone or cooperating reasons for the shortage are proposed. These involve UAP interaction with terminator lighting, a UAP preference to explore during a fixed local time of evening despite location and finally UAP preferred entry/departure in polar or extreme north/south areas possibly to also avoid rapidly increasing East-West satellite traffic after the 1950s.
This paper is divided into five parts:
1. The East-West UAP travel shortage and the search method used to detect it
2. UAPs and night/day terminator illumination interactions as an explanation
3. UAPs and a desire to maintain a given local time-of-day across multiple sequential visited sites as an
4. UAPs and preferred polar entry/departures; possibly also practiced to avoid heavy east-west satellite
5. Conclusions, Further Suggested Work and Appendix
The primary and original standalone purpose of this study was to determine, on a global basis, if there has been any preference for UAPs to travel in preferred compass directions over the last century. It has certainly not been established, until now, whether flight directions of UAPs are uniform in nature over time, although that seems to be an unquestioned presumption.
A factor that should be considered by an investigator taking on this study is that the layman possibly isn’t as comfortable verbalizing “compound” compass directions such as NE or NNE but is more comfortable with N, S, E and W. Of course, many first responders, pilots, hunters and meteorologists are comfortable with compound compass directions as well as primary compass directions. The manner in which this study is done captures all primary and compound compass directions found in any of the employed database sighting reports searched herein with the use of search “wildcards”. Presuming a significant fraction of reports are by such responders and other compass-conversant outdoor navigators as opposed to the remaining population, the author would expect a polar plot of reported flight directions to be rotationally symmetric but with a first larger peak value at N, S, E and W compass points and a somewhat lesser second peak value at the in-between NE, NW, SE and SW directions-presuming UAPs actually travel uniformly in all directions on average over time. The aim of this study in Part 1 is to find any rotational asymmetry in UAP travel direction possibly attributable to a geophysical, habitual or unknown reason which affects UAP travel behavior.
With respect to work done previously in this general area the author is quite familiar with the early work of the respected pioneer Aime’ Michel of France regarding the 1954 UAP “invasion” of his country. Michel gave birth to his “Orthoteny” theory based on the widely reported intensive 1954 sightings in France. His Orthoteny theory argued that the daily 1954 UAP visits in France fell along a straight line (or great circle) for each successive day of the 1954 sightings. Different sightings days involved new and different lines. The theory has since been properly questioned using computer modeling which indicated Michel’s results were possibly mostly due to pure chance. Other than the “Orthoteny” development, the author isn’t familiar with any other reported in-depth study of actual sightings for the analysis of UAP travel directions. As a reference point, Michel’s study involved approximately 250 or so French sightings over the year 1954. The database of sightings used by the author herein is far larger and covers a much longer period (2 million+ reports distributed worldwide over a century).
The author was also prompted to electronically gather his database over several years and then conduct the study reported herein after a single MUFON-reported sighting of his own over NASA-AMES Research Labs in Mountain View California. That sighting involved a gray brown disc making a steep hockey stick dive on that site and then not reappearing.
It will be apparent to those with substantial computer searching experience that such a study requires great care in the selection of its Boolean search terms to avoid the inclusion of UAPs described only as “objects” without any shape closely attached. The words “object”, “UAP’, “UFO”, “OVNI” and even “craft” (which is on the borderline) all have the same generic issue. These terms, used alone without a nearby shape description, are possibly shapeless objects and may well be planets, stars or other lights in the sky (LITS). Obviously most such shapeless LITs also never display outrageous flight performance such as instant stops, instant starts, right-angle turns, silent hovering and flat turns. However even “shapeless” LITs (not studied here) are probably anomalous UAPs if they do display such “flight” dynamics. I do not address LITs of any type herein as there are a very large number of UAP sightings in this database including BOTH a reported UAP shape or shape comment closely or adjacently situated to its respective UAP travel direction.
The global database used in this study, covering about a century, was patiently and persistently collected over a 10-year period. It presently contains 2.3 million files and comprises about 2.4 gigabytes. Several hundred further gigabytes of UAP sighting-related video (without transcripts) were not included in this computer searching as they are currently not word-searchable. The files included is the database are extremely broad in scope and include: 1) News clippings, 2) Newspaper articles of longer length, 3) News Magazine articles, 4) UAP/UFO Journal, Bulletin and Periodical articles, 4) Science and Discovery Journal and Periodical articles, 5) Professional Journal and Periodical articles (Astrophysics, Astronomy, Geophysics, Science, Technology, Aerodynamics, Propulsion, Relativity, SETI, Space Agencies, 6) Government sponsored studies-e.g. Condon, Blue-Book, Grudge, Sign, 7) Privately sponsored studies-e.g. COMETA, 8) FOIA (Freedom Of Information Act) materials-e.g. mostly from the Black Vault, 9) Government and Agency data releases of years-old files, 10) UAP related RSS internet news, 11) Blog materials for the very few serious UAP-related blogs, 12) Website materials including old web archives for the few serious sites with a focus on understanding UAPs, 13) Books of all ages (my laptop notes are used as searchable files for books under copyright). 14) Cable and Broadcast news programs with transcripts, 15) Cable and Broadcast Investigative Reports and Shows with transcripts and 16) the excellent NUFORC database which is openly shared and can be bulk downloaded. Also included are files from the superb and very helpful website “afu.se” in Sweden, the resourceful U.S. based “Black Vault” site, the dedicated and astute Isaac Koi British site and the extensive broad-scope Canadian NOUFORS site. No obviously fictional or science-fiction material is included in the database searched herein. The majority of the files are in English and were already searchable or were instead OCR’d (Optically Character Recognized) by this author using a recent OCR professional version of software. The foreign language materials, not having readily available translations, will be searched at a later date after my computer-aided language translation. Several smaller widely known UAP databases freely available on the internet, such as UFOCAT, Project 1947, NARCAP and the British PRUFOS police database, are also included and I thank those dedicated authors.
The database is unavoidably slanted toward northern hemisphere sightings due to purported less reporting in the southern hemisphere. Many UAP investigators think that, in reality, sightings are probably roughly equal in both hemispheres if averaged over a few decades as I do.
The laptop employed is this study is an early 2020 Apple MacBook with a fast I9 processor, 32 Gigs of fast RAM and 4 Terabytes of fast solid-state mass memory (SSD drive). Software employed includes a) Devonthink 3.5.2 (British authored database software with ABBY OCR), Devonagent Pro 2020 (Internet searching software) and Google Advanced Search. I have not been compensated in any manner for using or mentioning any software or hardware products or websites mentioned in this study. The Devon software includes the embedded ABBY OCR capability which is frequently updated as well as a background duplicate file detection capability. Searches of the local laptop database took anywhere between 3 secs and 2 minutes depending on the complexity of the search. Note that some searches contain many hundreds of sub searches and many dozens of character wildcards-i.e. literally millions of sub scans in one “search”. My laptop fan got plenty of exercise. Finally, a separate OSX (Apple) duplicate-file finding program (Duplicate File-Finder Pro) was used to double check the duplicate finding performance of the Devon software. Using both duplicate finding capabilities cooperatively, the global database maintains less than 1% detectable duplicates.
One last strategy note. It is important that the travel direction identified in the UAP/UFO sighting reports is NOT that of the witness rather than that of the UAP itself. Many UAP witnesses are, or were, driving or walking before or during their sighting. In the appendix I describe a check search set that verified this wasn’t an issue for this study.
The database software is particularly strong on proximity searching wherein the searcher can query whether a first word(s) or phrase(s) occurs within N words of a second word(s) or phrase(s). Small values of N can assure that the travel direction relates to the traveling UAP.
To capture only traveling shape-recognized UAPs in the searching I stress the need to have both a UAP shape AND a related UAP travel direction in close proximity in any report of interest. Again, this “closeness”, in search words or phrases of interest, is called proximity. Small proximity means high probability that the two different words or phrases refer to the same thing (a traveling UAP with a perceived shape). To be even more specific, proximity for the Devon software utilizes a proximity variable called N. If N=1 (is set to 1 by the user) that means the two targeted phrases (or words) are directly adjacent. If N=3 (is set to 3 by the user) that means that there are two (or fewer) other words BETWEEN our two targeted shape and direction words and/or phrases. Those who pay attention to the way language is employed will know that the word “object” is frequently understandably employed by UAP/UFO sighters. In many cases sighting reports have the shape search phrases adjacent the word “object” thereby further affirming that it is a UAP is of recognized shape. N=2 and even 3 contain many good traveling shaped UAP sightings as well. The use of the term “object” alone, even next to one of our directional search phrases, is insufficient to be of interest without a nearby or adjacent shape phrase as it could be a LITS and thereby a star, planet, meteor, missile, reentry event or even a plane. The same argument applies to “UAP”, “UFO” “OVNI” and to some degree “craft”
The shape description search phrases employed herein are completely listed below. These include shape phrase wildcards, i.e. “*” for multiple missing characters (e.g. West* for West, Westward) and “?” for a single missing character (such an “s” for a plural version of the word (i.e. cigar? for cigar or cigars). There are at-least 183 unique shape phrases (including wildcard versions). Note that the “shapeless” generic terms for flying anomalies such as UAP, UAO, UFO, Object and OVNI are NOT included in our search phrase lists. The word “craft” is also not included as it may or may not involve a perceived shape when used alone. The study database files were manually selected for database inclusion because each was observed by the author to contain one or more UAP sighting reports. The search study itself finds the subset of database files that contain UAP shape phrases near UAP traveling direction phrases. In addition, the below shape search phrases have been observed by the author to often occur in UAP sighting reports over the years. We already know before searching that UAP related sighting(s) are mentioned in each file. The author does not throw out files with the generic terms UAP, UAO, UFO, OVNI, Object, Craft etc. They frequently are found between or before/after our proximal search phrases of shape and direction as would be often expected. It will be appreciated that the strategy herein makes such a study practical in size, although still quite tedious.
UAP Shape Search Phrases (~183 shape phrases with wildcard use):
saucer? OR disk? OR disc? OR triang* OR "flying wing" OR "wing shape?" OR "wing like" OR chevron OR "cone shape?" OR “wedge” OR "cross shape?" OR "v-shape?" OR "vee shape?" OR "wedge shape?" OR "oblong shape?" OR ovoid OR "oval shape?" OR "hat shape?" OR "hat like" OR domed OR "pyramid* shape?" OR "pyramid* like" OR "plate shape?" OR "plate like" OR "crescent shape?" OR "crescent like" OR "mushroom shape?" OR "mushroom like" OR "coin shape?" OR "coin like" OR "trapez* shape?" OR "trapez* like" OR "spher* shape?" OR "spher* like" OR "ellip* shape?" OR "ellip* like" OR "cigar shape?" OR "cigar like" OR "shape? like a cigar" OR "delta shape?" OR "delta like" OR "dart shape?" OR "shape? like a dart" OR "bullet shape?" OR "bullet like" OR "rect* shape?" OR "rect* like" OR "square shape?" OR "square like" OR "circ* shape*" OR "circ* like" OR "arrow shape?" OR "arrow like" OR "glowing shape?" OR "brilliant shape?" OR “torus shape?” OR "torus like" OR boomerang OR "prism* shape*" OR "prism* like" OR "diamond shape?" OR "diamond like shape?" OR "donut shape?" OR "donut like shape?" OR "dumbell shape?" OR "dumbell like" OR "rod shape?" OR "rod like" OR "bar shape?" OR "bar like" OR "egg shape?" OR "egg like" OR "oval shape?" OR "teardrop shape?" OR "tear drop shape?" OR "blimp shape?" OR "blimp like" OR "airship shape?" OR "airship like" OR "air ship shape?" OR "air ship like" OR "tube shape?" OR "tube like" OR "tubular shape?" OR "tubular like" OR "alien vehicle" OR "et? vehicle" OR "alien spacecraft" OR "alien space craft" OR "et? spacecraft" OR "et? space craft" OR "unidentified vehicle" OR "unknown vehicle" OR "visiting spacecraft" OR "as big as a house" OR "bigger than a house" OR "as big as a football field" OR "bigger than a football field" OR "huge size" OR "massive size" OR "blocked the stars" OR "blocked out the stars" OR "as wide as the road" OR "wider than the road" OR "saturn shape?" OR "saturn like shape?" OR "changing shape?" OR "shape? changing" OR "blinding shape*" OR "unidentified shape?" OR "ring shape?" OR "ring like shape"
UAP Travel-Direction Search Phrases (~470 direction phrases with wildcard use):
There are 47 direction phrases for each of generally North, South, East and West-going UAPs resulting in 188 direction phrases NOT counting the wildcard (? and *) variations. It will be appreciated that the non-primary and in-between compass directions of NE, NW, SE and SW as well as NNE, NNW etc. are included in searching by the presence of the wildcards. In this manner we are covering all 360 degrees of UAP travel in searching.
By also counting the directional phrase wildcards we see that, on average, each of the 188 direction phrases represents somewhere around an average of 2.5 or more actual direction phrases. Thus, we have approximately 188 x 2.5= 470 directional search phrases.
The directional phrases can be seen in the search results tables on the following four charts in the order of general directions North, South, East and West. Since we have ~470 total direction phrases and ~183 shape phrases we are searching in total for 470 X 183= 86,010 phrase combinations and further requiring specific N=10, 5, 3, 2, and 1 proximity (5 different proximities). Thus, we can fairly say that there are (86,010 x 5) or about 430,050 search combinations. This would be virtually impossible to do and keep mistake-free without computer help. One would not even be able to manually reasonably limit duplicate files. By duplicate I mean the same UAP sighting report file, in whole or in part, regardless of the publication name and publication dates. i.e. a multisentence quote of a report is a duplicate report. I attempt to include original reports when possible.
The global searches for each value of proximity N had the same following construction: (a directional phrase e.g. “going North*” NEAR/N (above list of any one or more of 183+ shape phrases), wherein N is word-proximity (or phrase proximity). I employed N’s of 10, 5, 3, 2 and 1. N is plus and minus meaning for N=10 the targeted words or phrases “A” and “B” could be in the order A(9 to 0 possible intervening words)B or B(9 to 0 possible intervening words)A. Some hit target examples of N>1 include: a) the triangular shaped UAP was heading West, b) the Saturn shaped craft was seen flying in a Western direction”. It should also be expected that any appreciable real asymmetric nonuniformity of UAP directional travel should appear similarly at low N’s of 1, 2 and perhaps 3 if not at even at higher N’s in such a large and varied database including many writing styles.
Going Generally North Search Table
Going Generally South Search Table
Going Generally East Search Table
Going Generally West Search Table
Note that every number in the four results charts above involved one or more directions (including wildcards) searched against ALL of the shape phrases existing within the set proximity N. Directly below are two summary tables of the hit results, the top one showing absolute numbers of sightings hit and the second below it shows the same hit results separately normalized to the maximum number of hits for each value of N=10, 5, 3, 2 and 1. The next chart shows bar graphs for the hit results for proximities of 10, 5, 3, 2, 1 and for the four general directions of UAP Travel.
Hits vs. General Directions And Proximities N of 10, 5, 3, 2, 1
Normalized Hits vs. General Directions And Proximities N of 10, 5, 3, 2, 1
Discussion of Part 1 Results- The Apparent Shortage:
First, note from the above table that we have 26,034 total hits for N=1 (directly adjacent phrases). For N=2 we have 39,194 total hits. For N=3 we have 49,473 total hits. The N=1 hits are included in the N=2 and 3 hits and the N=2 hits are included in the N=3 hits as would be expected the way the proximity tool works.
For N=1, or directly adjacent direction phrases and shape phrases, one can immediately see from the upper raw hits table and lower “normalized” table that the sighting file hits for East-West-going UAPs are quite different from the North-South going hits. To be specific, for N=1, the North and South hits average 7846. For N=1, the East and West hits average 5171. The most significant findings are then:
For N=1 the average East-West hits are 34.1% lower than the average North-South hits.
2. For N=1, 2 and 3 the avg East-West hits vs. the avg North-South hits deficit changes only from -34.1% to
-29.2% to -27.6%. i.e. this is a real and significant difference for N=3,2,1 over a cumulative 49,473 hits.
Part 2: UAPs and night/day terminator illumination interactions as an explanation
The night/day terminator is the twilight or partially lit zone between total darkness and total daylight wrapping around Earth’s entire circumference at any moment and oriented at a 90-degree angle to the sun. By convention the twilight zone has three sequential time (or rotation) phases and related subzones: a) The first phase called Civil Twilight, b) the second or next phase called Nautical Twilight and c) the third and last phase called Astronomical Twilight. Near the equator the terminator races around the Earth at about 1000 miles/hr. ground speed. Also, by convention, each of the three twilight phases lasts for 6 degrees of Earth rotation so the total daylight to full darkness rotation angle of all three sequential twilight phases together is 3 x 6= 18 degrees. This Earth’s rotation angle is also called the “Sun’s Depression Angle” during twilight. It will be appreciated that the terminator zone occurs simultaneously at both sunset and sunrise on opposite sides of the Earth. For sunset the sun is increasing its depression angle below the horizon whereas for sunrise the sun is decreasing its depression angle above the horizon. For sunset the first phase, or Civil phase, is the brightest. The second Nautical phase still has some useful light whereas the third phase is mostly quite dark. The lighting I specifically refer to is the sky brightness looking generally upward. The reader will be familiar with the fact that at sunset and during much of twilight the sky is brightest looking Westward, less so directly upwards and even less so looking Eastward. As it gets later in twilight the Western horizon brightness even takes on a crown shape on the western horizon.
Before proceeding further, we will introduce a graph below. This graph shows, by altitude above the ground, the higher sunlit zone and lower darkening zone during twilight. The "just-sunlit" altitude through the 18 degrees of twilight and beyond is thereby depicted. i.e. During twilight, as you climb in altitude only then is the direct sunlight seen. I refer to this increasing just-sunlit altitude after sunset as the “just sunlit” altitude for a climbing UAP. Note that this just-sunlit altitude zone is situated above the darker indirectly lit (by sunlight scattering) lower twilight altitudes. On the graph I include horizontal red altitude lines for the 30, 300 and 5280 ft size UAPs being of apparent Jupiter size (40 arc sec/0.67 arc-min) or moon (31.5 arc min) size respectively. Note the skyward light intensity color bar under the graph.
First, I am going to discuss low level UAPs (UAPs below the just-sunlit curve above which are backlit by any part of the higher sky and/or are immersion bodily lit by surrounding indirect light scattering). For this circumstance I will roughly estimate the proposed twilight light avoidance impact and make several assumptions to do so. I suspect that this particular estimate will be on the low side (too conservative) and I will depend on others, if interested and if worthwhile, to apply the more complex proper atmospheric lighting models (or simulations thereof) for a more accurate estimate to see how much of the 34.1% impact, if verified, might be accounted for by this first Part2a low-level twilight illumination avoidance mechanism.
For this first close-in backlit and immersion lit circumstance the author assumes that UAPs are avoiding situations wherein they are close enough to have their shape and details recognized (about 15 arc minutes angular size or closer/larger). Note that such UAPs will be even more brightly backlit and still immersion-lit if looking West. This lateral viewing Westward will mainly be limited by the apparent angular size of the UAP at the lower level. Per the above just-sunlit graph many of these UAPs are still miles high.
Three witnessed UAP sizes will be examined, a 30 ft UAP, a 300ft UAP and a mile-size UAP. At 15 arc minutes apparent angular size the shape detection altitude limits are: 30ft UAP-1.3 miles alt @ 1.47 deg depression, 3 0ft UAP-13 miles @ 4.64 depression deg and the mile size UAP-229 miles @ 19.05 deg depression of the sun below the horizon.
Moving now to lateral viewing of these same UAPs at lower altitudes (to stay within 15 arc min shape resolving distance) we see that for the 30ft UAP it can be seen with 15 arc-min or larger size from up to 1.3 miles laterally if the UAP is very low and situated at any depression angle wherein the westward brightness allows it. Thus, we have for:
-30ft UAP upward look 1.3 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~ 1.3-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 1.47 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.
-300ft UAP upward look 13 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~ 13-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 4.64 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.
-mile size (5280ft) UAP upward look 229 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~229-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 19.05 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.
Now I will discuss the second type of terminator lighting that could be an issue for UAPs. That is the high-level UAP situated in direct sunlight above the curve of the just-sunlit graph. The contrast can actually be higher here as the UAP is no longer scatter-illuminated but is now in direct sunlight. It will appear as a bright spot on a darker or quite dark background. These UAPs are even higher in altitude than in Part2a. The author will presume that even if these UAPs are somewhat too small for shape recognition (15 arc min apparent size or more) they are seen over a much larger lateral area than Part2a UAPs by many more witnesses and are more likely to be travelling faster to get to their near-ground target(s). For these I will use a 5 arc min detection size. This will give a longer-range contrast-based detection altitude but no shape. The change from 15 to 5 arc min essentially increases the detection range by a factor of three (presuming the same contrast). A doubling of altitude would increase witnesses by about 4x given constant detectability and a cone shaped witnessing volume. A tripling of altitude would increase witnesses by about 9x given constant detectability. The UAP concern here in this Part2b would be that although their shape isn’t apparent at the max altitude their presence is far more apparent due to both up to 9x more witnesses and the likely longer ~3x time the UAP is visible. Thus we have for the Part2b case:
-30ft UAP upward look 3.9 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~ 3.9-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 2.54 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward, UAP is above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=3.9 miles
-300ft UAP upward look 39 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~ 39-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 8.00 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward, UAP is above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=39 miles
-mile size (5280ft) UAP upward look 687 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~687-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 31.50 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=687 miles
Third I consider a different mechanism for the east-west shortage however it is still related to the terminator but is not because the terminator steals depression angle from the true darkness. The idea here is that UAPs are interested in observing people and infrastructure during particular local times or timeframes of the evening when certain activities take place such as work commutes, people going to dinner, people coming home from evening entertainment etc. This idea may have been proposed prior to this. It will be apparent that if a given single UAP makes multiple stops at different locations during the evening it would have to travel most of the mission time primarily north, south, northwest or southwest and possibly make only quick or occasional westward jogs to remain in the desired local timeframe. This would certainly depress observed East-West (especially East) travel possibly up to a large percentage. The percentage impact of this chosen voluntary UAP behavior probably depends strongly on how long a given local UAP visit lasts and how many visits are made in sequence at different locales-if more than one locale visit is even typically made at all. I have seen some data that local visits (local sightings wherein shape is detected) typically last less than 7-20 minutes. I would think that the UAP would best travel Southwest at an angle to North-South to constantly correct its local time-say to 9pm. Alternatively it could combine Southwest and South movements. Alternatively, again it could send out scouts which each go to different sites having the same longitude (same 9pm local time) in which case the shortage could disappear completely. This shortage mechanism especially for single UAPs could account for some or all of the 31.4% East-West shortage. It should be kept in mind that at the equator this “local time maintenance” approach involves as much as 1000 miles westward movement in an hour. My estimate is that if this mechanism is active then a single UAP might use very high East-West correction velocities if necessary for very short times-spending most of the time meandering far more slowly generally North, Northwest, South or Southwest.
It has long been verified that on a plot of UAP sightings there is a sightings peak at 9-10pm local time with a much smaller peak in the early or later still-dark hours. Vallee’ and several other European researchers have logically explained that behavior as being simply because sightings don’t appreciably occur for sleeping persons (unless rarely awakened). However, the question I ask here is whether that plot implies that UAP visits occur all night long at the same rate everywhere in the dark or near-dark wherein most are NOT witnessed? Another explanation I’ll propose here which may have been previously proposed (?) is consistent with the Part3 mechanism above. This is simply that the UAP plot referred to above has that shape because UAPs specifically target those local times because that is a most interesting timeframe ranging from the going-home commute time, driving to/from dinner time and driving to/from entertainment venues. Further, it is the time when people can be seen arriving and departing home and be visible at-least through early evening windows. The same applies to the smaller early morning peak. The few outlier sightings in the very late or very early AM such as midnight to 4am may comprise UAPs undertaking more objectionable missions with hopefully (for UAPs) no witnesses-such as for purported animal mutilations and abductions if any can indeed be attributed to UAPs. I think the jury is out on that question. These phenomena certainly cannot be dismissed as impossible.
The idea that UAPs arrive and depart over the poles has been voiced several times in the past. I believe I add one additional reason here for such behavior as UAPs possibly avoiding our East-West orbital spacecraft and satellite traffic. By coming in and going out at or nearer the North and South poles in primarily a southward or northward direction respectively, UAPs could get safely underneath the East-West continuous swarm of human lofted satellites. There are roughly 5000-6000 live and dead satellites in orbit. There are roughly 2700 live ones and roughly 2900 dead ones. Many of these are in low orbits to take advantage of their low altitudes. There are some in polar and other tilted orbits, but the main swarm is generally East-West moving. Geostationary near-equator satellites may also be an issue for UAPs since they move at very high velocities (even for UAPs) although they are very high in altitude. These are included in the above numbers. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are at “low” altitudes in the approximate range of 621 miles down to as low as 99 miles. Note that if UAPs were forced underneath these LEOs they would be visible traveling North-South in several of our shortage scenarios. The author suspects that if this is an active mechanism for the shortage it is due to some UAPs retaining the North-South entry direction for a short time during or toward the end of the act of entering.
Part 5: Conclusions
If the large Part1 34.1% (or anything anywhere near that) shortage is verified going forward it needs an explanation. The fact that East and West travel were found almost identical should give us a clue. It seems that if the Part3 explanation is in action then we should see Westward travel be somewhat higher than Eastward travel. However, the East to West travel ratio appears close to 1 from N=1-10. This would seem at first to bring Parts 2a, 2b and Part 4 explanations more forward. It should be clear that the Part2a and Part2b (particularly 2b high level) explanations might account for a significant part of the shortage however for that to be true the mile size UAP would likely have to be present and in avoidance behavior. It does not seem likely that the entire 2a, 2b shortage could be due to the 30ft UAPs alone but if there were enough of them-such as 10-20 at a time released from one or more mothership UAPs it might explain it. It would probably require a computer model of these limits (or of better ones) to get a better shortage impact estimate for explanations 2a and 2b by UAP size.
What one needs to keep in mind about this study is that it looked at shape recognized UAPs. One might ask if they are shape recognized have they failed at concealing themselves? My answer to that is:
Explanation 2a (low level UAPs within the twilight) can potentially be witnessed by far fewer people than the Explanation 2b UAPs (high level UAPs above the curve). If 2b (high level) dominates the impact over 2a (low level) then one would expect UAPs to simply tolerate type 2a very low level (shape recognizable) sightings by very limited witnesses in order to achieve their missions-especially if they leave promptly.
2. It is possible that 2a and/or 2b light avoidance limits are not active. If this is the case then the shape
recognized 2a types that are seen down low may still be limited by explanations 3 (local timeframe kept
constant) and/or 4 (Polar entry).
Explanation 3 (maintaining local timeframe) isn’t motivated by hiding.
Explanation 4 (Polar or Arctic/Antarctic approaches), if indeed motivated by satellite traffic, isn’t caused by
hiding. Explanation 4 (Polar), with or without a satellite avoidance limit, does seem synergistic with light
avoidance explanation 2b (high level UAPs)
The Part 4 explanation of polar entry is interesting because it has been around a while so there is probably some other data supporting it that I am not yet aware of. If the satellite-avoidance reason is also true one would expect the East-West shortage to increase as more and more satellites were lofted over the decades from the late 50s to today. This is a further suggested study that I may perform myself on the same database. Undoubtedly NORAD has numerous unsubstantiated radar target hits as has been openly discussed in the past and as would be expected. These could possibly publicly verify or kill any polar entry theory. The correct explanation(s) for the East-West shortage may still be unidentified. Note that for low N values the generally South travel is a bit larger than the generally North travel. This could also be consistent with the polar theory and the Northern Hemisphere domination of sightings.
In closing the conclusion section the author believes what the study of UAPs needs most is for some pattern of (or major aspect of) UAP behavior to be explained. What is interesting about this tentatively identified East-West shortage is that UAPs seem to have a substantially (1/3) biased behavior. It may be even more biased than we thought if it turns that the majority of UAP visits have been in the approximate 9-10pm timeframe on the western terminator extreme for reasons of targeting people and infrastructure in certain specific evening activities. If UAPs on average have kept their individual visits to a few minutes over a 1-2-hour multivisit total period and speed (or rematerialize?) to each (if any) additional visitation sites that could result in equal east and west observed (at visit sites) travel-while still possibly obeying particularly 2b limits. That would also allow the Part3 explanation to still be valid but wherein the “constant local timeframe” varies by 1-2 tolerable hours.
Part 5: Further Suggested Work
The most important first action is for at least two (preferably 3) other persons to analyze two (preferably 3) other global databases to see if a significant East-West shortage can be independently verified. It should be the case that LITs are excluded, the database is varied and deep and the search method is detailed as herein. Perhaps some UAP organization or patient independently working UAP luminaries somewhere in the world could get this done in the near term. Better Southern Hemisphere data would also be good-if it exists.
2. The East-West tentatively identified bias should be examined across the years from about 1950-present to
see if the growth of satellites aloft increased the East-West deficit. The author may do this himself if he can similarly limit the total time invested.
3. The Earth’s magnetic field has been suggested as helpful to UAP propulsion by one or a few investigators. The author and others understand the magnetic fields of UAPs to be orders of magnitude larger than
Earth’s. Further, if this propulsion-aid explanation is true, why aren’t East-West UAP travel observations far
lower than they are? This explanation would potentially encourage if not require polar entry and departure.
It would be useful for someone to fully explain this idea in view of the found directional travel frequencies
which include substantial East-West travel. East-West travel is not in doubt.
The author has some concern about the recent seeming shift or increase toward triangle UAPs at very low altitudes likely involving purported larger UAP crews and much more capable vehicles (than their purported small 30 foot “scouts”). These larger craft and purported crews may have gained enough prior confidence acting as motherships with releasable scout vehicles that they now themselves come lower and don’t fear ground witnesses at all despite their blatantly revealing “running lights”. This trend could change the purported historic East-West bias behavior toward exclusively very low-level evening jaunts without any regard to the above 2a, 2b, 3 and 4 limitations or any bias. If this is true then the tentatively identified East-West deficit may be the least of our concerns.
Part 5: Appendix
With respect to the searches misidentifying walking or driving witnesses as the traveling entities the author took a quick look at the very largest of the subsearches, namely GN18 and GN43, GS18 and GS43, GE18 and GE43 and GW18 and GW43. For the respective searches I used the following additional witness-motion search phrases on the results
NOT ("driv* from the south*" OR "drove from the south*" OR "walk* from the south*" OR "riding from the south*" OR "rode from the south*")
NOT ("driv* to* the north*" OR "drove to* the north*" OR "walk* to* the north*" OR "riding to* the north*" OR "rode to* the north*")
NOT ("driv* from the north*" OR "drove from the north*" OR "walk* from the north*" OR "riding from the north*" OR "rode from the north*")
NOT ("driv* to* the south*" OR "drove to* the south*" OR "walk* to* the south*" OR "riding to* the south*" OR "rode to* the south*")
NOT ("driv* from the west*" OR "drove from the west*" OR "walk* from the west*" OR "riding from the west*" OR "rode from the west*")
NOT ("driv* to* the east*" OR "drove to* the east*" OR "walk* to* the east*" OR "riding to* the east*" OR "rode to* the east*")
NOT ("driv* from the east*" OR "drove from the east*" OR "walk* from the east*" OR "riding from the east*" OR "rode from the east*")
NOT ("driv* to* the west*" OR "drove to* the west*" OR "walk* to* the west*" OR "riding to* the west*" OR "rode to* the west*")
Note that in the results charts the thus corrected hits for these biggest searches are shown in red. Since the changes were negligible no corrections need to be applied.
Regarding aircraft being the cause of many of the found sightings I say this. 1) Shapes are reported few of which are cigar (fuselage) shaped and have contrails-and those could still well be UAPs, 2) Just judging from the US flight activity there are probably more generally east-west flights than generally north-south flights because of the aspect ratio of the US proper as well as the locations of Hawaii and the Caribbean Islands. Further many overseas flights, although along polar routes, are at very high altitudes with continuous contrails and difficult shape detectability. These are contrary to the results.
Just-Sunlit Altitude In Miles During Twilight
Sun Depression Angle Below Horizon
Brightness Looking Upward