Discussion of Part 1 Results- The Apparent Shortage:

 

     First, note from the above table that we have 26,034 total hits for N=1 (directly adjacent phrases). For N=2 we have 39,194 total hits. For N=3 we have 49,473 total hits. The N=1 hits are included in the N=2 and 3 hits and the N=2 hits are included in the N=3 hits as would be expected the way the proximity tool works. 

     For N=1, or directly adjacent direction phrases and shape phrases, one can immediately see from the upper raw hits table and lower “normalized” table that the sighting file hits for East-West-going UAPs are quite different from the North-South going hits. To be specific, for N=1, the North and South hits average 7846. For N=1, the East and West hits average 5171.  The most significant findings are then:

                                                                                                  

1. For N=1 the average East-West hits are 34.1% lower than the average North-South hits. 

 

  2.  For N=1, 2 and 3 the avg East-West hits vs. the avg North-South hits deficit changes only from -34.1% to

      -29.2% to -27.6%. i.e. this is a real and significant difference for N=3,2,1 over a cumulative 49,473 hits.

 

 

 

Part 2:    UAPs and night/day terminator illumination interactions as an explanation

 

   The night/day terminator is the twilight or partially lit zone between total darkness and total daylight wrapping around Earth’s entire circumference at any moment and oriented at a 90-degree angle to the sun. By convention the twilight zone has three sequential time (or rotation) phases and related subzones: a) The first phase called Civil Twilight, b) the second or next phase called Nautical Twilight and c) the third and last phase called Astronomical Twilight. Near the equator the terminator races around the Earth at about 1000 miles/hr. ground speed. Also, by convention, each of the three twilight phases lasts for 6 degrees of Earth rotation so the total daylight to full darkness rotation angle of all three sequential twilight phases together is 3 x 6= 18 degrees. This Earth’s rotation angle is also called the “Sun’s Depression Angle” during twilight. It will be appreciated that the terminator zone occurs simultaneously at both sunset and sunrise on opposite sides of the Earth. For sunset the sun is increasing its depression angle below the horizon whereas for sunrise the sun is decreasing its depression angle above the horizon. For sunset the first phase, or Civil phase, is the brightest. The second Nautical phase still has some useful light whereas the third phase is mostly quite dark. The lighting I specifically refer to is the sky brightness looking generally upward. The reader will be familiar with the fact that at sunset and during much of twilight the sky is brightest looking Westward, less so directly upwards and even less so looking Eastward. As it gets later in twilight the Western horizon brightness even takes on a crown shape on the western horizon. 

    Before proceeding further, we will introduce a graph below. This graph shows, by altitude above the ground, the higher sunlit zone and lower darkening zone during twilight.  The "just-sunlit" altitude through the 18 degrees of twilight and beyond is thereby depicted. i.e. During twilight, as you climb in altitude only then is the direct sunlight seen. I refer to this increasing just-sunlit altitude after sunset as the “just sunlit” altitude for a climbing UAP. Note that this just-sunlit altitude zone is situated above the darker indirectly lit (by sunlight scattering) lower twilight altitudes. On the graph I include horizontal red altitude lines for the 30, 300 and 5280 ft size UAPs being of apparent Jupiter size (40 arc sec/0.67 arc-min) or moon (31.5 arc min) size respectively. Note the skyward light intensity color bar under the graph. 

 

 

                                                                                                                                

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                     

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Part 2a

 

   First, I am going to discuss low level UAPs (UAPs below the just-sunlit curve above which are backlit by any part of the higher sky and/or are immersion bodily lit by surrounding indirect light scattering). For this circumstance I will roughly estimate the proposed twilight light avoidance impact and make several assumptions to do so. I suspect that this particular estimate will be on the low side (too conservative) and I will depend on others, if interested and if worthwhile, to apply the more complex proper atmospheric lighting models (or simulations thereof) for a more accurate estimate to see how much of the 34.1% impact, if verified, might be accounted for by this first Part2a low-level twilight illumination avoidance mechanism.

   For this first close-in backlit and immersion lit circumstance the author assumes that UAPs are avoiding situations wherein they are close enough to have their shape and details recognized (about 15 arc minutes angular size or closer/larger). Note that such UAPs will be even more brightly backlit and still immersion-lit if looking West. This lateral viewing Westward will mainly be limited by the apparent angular size of the UAP at the lower level. Per the above just-sunlit graph many of these UAPs are still miles high.

Three witnessed UAP sizes will be examined, a 30 ft UAP, a 300ft UAP and a mile-size UAP. At 15 arc minutes apparent angular size the shape detection altitude limits are: 30ft UAP-1.3 miles alt @ 1.47 deg depression, 3 0ft UAP-13 miles @ 4.64 depression deg and the mile size UAP-229 miles @ 19.05 deg depression of the sun below the horizon.  

    Moving now to lateral viewing of these same UAPs at lower altitudes (to stay within 15 arc min shape resolving distance) we see that for the 30ft UAP it can be seen with 15 arc-min or larger size from up to 1.3 miles laterally if the UAP is very low and situated at any depression angle wherein the westward brightness allows it. Thus, we have for:

 

-30ft UAP upward look 1.3 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~ 1.3-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 1.47 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.

-300ft UAP upward look 13 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~ 13-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 4.64 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.

-mile size (5280ft) UAP upward look 229 miles max altitude, UAP is under curve, lateral look westward ~229-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 19.05 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and under curve.

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Part 2b

 

   Now I will discuss the second type of terminator lighting that could be an issue for UAPs. That is the high-level UAP situated in direct sunlight above the curve of the just-sunlit graph. The contrast can actually be higher here as the UAP is no longer scatter-illuminated but is now in direct sunlight. It will appear as a bright spot on a darker or quite dark background. These UAPs are even higher in altitude than in Part2a. The author will presume that even if these UAPs are somewhat too small for shape recognition (15 arc min apparent size or more) they are seen over a much larger lateral area than Part2a  UAPs by many more witnesses and are more likely to be travelling faster to get to their near-ground target(s). For these I will use a 5 arc min detection size. This will give a longer-range contrast-based detection altitude but no shape. The change from 15 to 5 arc min essentially increases the detection range by a factor of three (presuming the same contrast). A doubling of altitude would increase witnesses by about 4x given constant detectability and a cone shaped witnessing volume. A tripling of altitude would increase witnesses by about 9x given constant detectability. The UAP concern here in this Part2b would be that although their shape isn’t apparent at the max altitude their presence is far more apparent due to both up to 9x more witnesses and the likely longer ~3x time the UAP is visible. Thus we have for the Part2b case:

 

-30ft UAP upward look 3.9 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~ 3.9-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 2.54 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward, UAP is above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=3.9 miles

-300ft UAP upward look 39 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~ 39-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 8.00 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward, UAP is above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=39 miles

-mile size (5280ft) UAP upward look 687 miles max altitude, UAP is above curve, lateral look westward ~687-mile max distance. The UAP is at or below 31.50 deg depression if looking upward. The UAP is at any depression angle if looking Westward and above curve AND direct distance to UAP is <=687 miles

 

Part 3

 

   Third I consider a different mechanism for the east-west shortage however it is still related to the terminator but is not because the terminator steals depression angle from the true darkness. The idea here is that UAPs are interested in observing people and infrastructure during particular local times or timeframes of the evening when certain activities take place such as work commutes, people going to dinner, people coming home from evening entertainment etc. This idea may have been proposed prior to this. It will be apparent that if a given single UAP makes multiple stops at different locations during the evening it would have to travel most of the mission time primarily north, south, northwest or southwest and possibly make only quick or occasional westward jogs to remain in the desired local timeframe. This would certainly depress observed East-West (especially East) travel possibly up to a large percentage. The percentage impact of this chosen voluntary UAP behavior probably depends strongly on how long a given local UAP visit lasts and how many visits are made in sequence at different locales-if more than one locale visit is even typically made at all. I have seen some data that local visits (local sightings wherein shape is detected) typically last less than 7-20 minutes. I would think that the UAP would best travel Southwest at an angle to North-South to constantly correct its local time-say to 9pm. Alternatively it could combine Southwest and South movements. Alternatively, again it could send out scouts which each go to different sites having the same longitude (same 9pm local time) in which case the shortage could disappear completely. This shortage mechanism especially for single UAPs could account for some or all of the 31.4% East-West shortage. It should be kept in mind that at the equator this “local time maintenance” approach involves as much as 1000 miles westward movement in an hour. My estimate is that if this mechanism is active then a single UAP might use very high East-West correction velocities if necessary for very short times-spending most of the time meandering far more slowly generally North, Northwest, South or Southwest.

   It has long been verified that on a plot of UAP sightings there is a sightings peak at 9-10pm local time with a much smaller peak in the early or later still-dark hours. Vallee’ and several other European researchers have logically explained that behavior as being simply because sightings don’t appreciably occur for sleeping persons (unless rarely awakened). However, the question I ask here is whether that plot implies that UAP visits occur all night long at the same rate everywhere in the dark or near-dark wherein most are NOT witnessed? Another explanation I’ll propose here which may have been previously proposed (?) is consistent with the Part3 mechanism above. This is simply that the UAP plot referred to above has that shape because UAPs specifically target those local times because that is a most interesting timeframe ranging from the going-home commute time, driving to/from dinner time and driving to/from entertainment venues. Further, it is the time when people can be seen arriving and departing home and be visible at-least through early evening windows. The same applies to the smaller early morning peak. The few outlier sightings in the very late or very early AM such as midnight to 4am may comprise UAPs undertaking more objectionable missions with hopefully (for UAPs) no witnesses-such as for purported animal mutilations and abductions if any can indeed be attributed to UAPs. I think the jury is out on that question. These phenomena certainly cannot be dismissed as impossible.

 

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Part 4

 

      The idea that UAPs arrive and depart over the poles has been voiced several times in the past. I believe I add one additional reason here for such behavior as UAPs possibly avoiding our East-West orbital spacecraft and satellite traffic. By coming in and going out at or nearer the North and South poles in primarily a southward or northward direction respectively, UAPs could get safely underneath the East-West continuous swarm of human lofted satellites. There are roughly 5000-6000 live and dead satellites in orbit. There are roughly 2700 live ones and roughly 2900 dead ones. Many of these are in low orbits to take advantage of their low altitudes. There are some in polar and other tilted orbits, but the main swarm is generally East-West moving. Geostationary near-equator satellites may also be an issue for UAPs since they move at very high velocities (even for UAPs) although they are very high in altitude. These are included in the above numbers. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are at “low” altitudes in the approximate range of 621 miles down to as low as 99 miles. Note that if UAPs were forced underneath these LEOs they would be visible traveling North-South in several of our shortage scenarios. The author suspects that if this is an active mechanism for the shortage it is due to some UAPs retaining the North-South entry direction for a short time during or toward the end of the act of entering.

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Part 5: Conclusions

 

   If the large Part1 34.1% (or anything anywhere near that) shortage is verified going forward it needs an explanation. The fact that East and West travel were found almost identical should give us a clue. It seems that if the Part3 explanation is in action then we should see Westward travel be somewhat higher than Eastward travel. However, the East to West travel ratio appears close to 1 from N=1-10. This would seem at first to bring Parts 2a, 2b and Part 4 explanations more forward. It should be clear that the Part2a and Part2b (particularly 2b high level) explanations might account for a significant part of the shortage however for that to be true the mile size UAP would likely have to be present and in avoidance behavior. It does not seem likely that the entire 2a, 2b shortage could be due to the 30ft UAPs alone but if there were enough of them-such as 10-20 at a time released from one or more mothership UAPs it might explain it. It would probably require a computer model of these limits (or of better ones) to get a better shortage impact estimate for explanations 2a and 2b by UAP size.

   What one needs to keep in mind about this study is that it looked at shape recognized UAPs. One might ask if they are shape recognized have they failed at concealing themselves? My answer to that is:

 

1. Explanation 2a (low level UAPs within the twilight) can potentially be witnessed by far fewer people than the Explanation 2b UAPs (high level UAPs above the curve). If 2b (high level) dominates the impact over 2a (low level) then one would expect UAPs to simply tolerate type 2a very low level (shape recognizable) sightings by very limited witnesses in order to achieve their missions-especially if they leave promptly. 

 

  2.  It is possible that 2a and/or 2b light avoidance limits are not active. If this is the case then the shape

       recognized 2a types that are seen down low may still be limited by explanations 3 (local timeframe kept

       constant) and/or 4 (Polar entry).

       Explanation 3 (maintaining local timeframe) isn’t motivated by hiding.

       Explanation 4 (Polar or Arctic/Antarctic approaches), if indeed motivated by satellite traffic, isn’t caused by

       hiding. Explanation 4 (Polar), with or without a satellite avoidance limit, does seem synergistic with light

       avoidance explanation 2b (high level UAPs)     

 

   The Part 4 explanation of polar entry is interesting because it has been around a while so there is probably some other data supporting it that I am not yet aware of. If the satellite-avoidance reason is also true one would expect the East-West shortage to increase as more and more satellites were lofted over the decades from the late 50s to today. This is a further suggested study that I may perform myself on the same database. Undoubtedly NORAD has numerous unsubstantiated radar target hits as has been openly discussed in the past and as would be expected. These could possibly publicly verify or kill any polar entry theory. The correct explanation(s) for the East-West shortage may still be unidentified. Note that for low N values the generally South travel is a bit larger than the generally North travel. This could also be consistent with the polar theory and the Northern Hemisphere domination of sightings.

   In closing the conclusion section the author believes what the study of UAPs needs most is for some pattern of (or major aspect of) UAP behavior to be explained. What is interesting about this tentatively identified East-West shortage is that UAPs seem to have a substantially (1/3) biased behavior. It may be even more biased than we thought if it turns that the majority of UAP visits have been in the approximate 9-10pm timeframe on the western terminator extreme for reasons of targeting people and infrastructure in certain specific evening activities. If UAPs on average have kept their individual visits to a few minutes over a 1-2-hour multivisit total period and speed (or rematerialize?) to each (if any) additional visitation sites that could result in equal east and west observed (at visit sites) travel-while still possibly obeying particularly 2b limits. That would also allow the Part3 explanation to still be valid but wherein the “constant local timeframe” varies by 1-2 tolerable hours.

 

Part 5:  Further Suggested Work

 

1. The most important first action is for at least two (preferably 3) other persons to analyze two (preferably 3) other global databases to see if a significant East-West shortage can be independently verified. It should be the case that LITs are excluded, the database is varied and deep and the search method is detailed as herein. Perhaps some UAP organization or patient independently working UAP luminaries somewhere in the world could get this done in the near term. Better Southern Hemisphere data would also be good-if it exists.

 

  2. The East-West tentatively identified bias should be examined across the years from about 1950-present to

      see if the growth of satellites aloft increased the East-West deficit. The author may do this himself if he             can similarly limit the total time invested.

 

  3. The Earth’s magnetic field has been suggested as helpful to UAP propulsion by one or a few investigators.       The author and others understand the magnetic fields of UAPs to be orders of magnitude larger than  

      Earth’s. Further, if this propulsion-aid explanation is true, why aren’t East-West UAP travel observations far

      lower than they are? This explanation would potentially encourage if not require polar entry and departure.

      It would be useful for someone to fully explain this idea in view of the found directional travel frequencies

      which include substantial East-West travel. East-West travel is not in doubt.

 

 

   The author has some concern about the recent seeming shift or increase toward triangle UAPs at very low altitudes likely involving purported larger UAP crews and much more capable vehicles (than their purported small 30 foot “scouts”). These larger craft and purported crews may have gained enough prior confidence acting as motherships with releasable scout vehicles that they now themselves come lower and don’t fear ground witnesses at all despite their blatantly revealing “running lights”. This trend could change the purported historic East-West bias behavior toward exclusively very low-level evening jaunts without any regard to the above 2a, 2b, 3 and 4 limitations or any bias. If this is true then the tentatively identified East-West deficit may be the least of our concerns.

 

Part 5:  Appendix

 

            With respect to the searches misidentifying walking or driving witnesses as the traveling entities the author took a quick look at the very largest of the subsearches, namely GN18 and GN43, GS18 and GS43, GE18 and GE43 and GW18 and GW43. For the respective searches I used the following additional witness-motion search phrases on the results

 

 

NOT ("driv* from the south*" OR "drove from the south*" OR "walk* from the south*" OR "riding from the south*" OR "rode from the south*")

 

NOT ("driv* to* the north*" OR "drove to* the north*" OR "walk* to* the north*" OR "riding to* the north*" OR "rode to* the north*")

 

NOT ("driv* from the north*" OR "drove from the north*" OR "walk* from the north*" OR "riding from the north*" OR "rode from the north*")

 

NOT ("driv* to* the south*" OR "drove to* the south*" OR "walk* to* the south*" OR "riding to* the south*" OR "rode to* the south*")

 

NOT ("driv* from the west*" OR "drove from the west*" OR "walk* from the west*" OR "riding from the west*" OR "rode from the west*")

 

NOT ("driv* to* the east*" OR "drove to* the east*" OR "walk* to* the east*" OR "riding to* the east*" OR "rode to* the east*")

 

NOT ("driv* from the east*" OR "drove from the east*" OR "walk* from the east*" OR "riding from the east*" OR "rode from the east*")

 

NOT ("driv* to* the west*" OR "drove to* the west*" OR "walk* to* the west*" OR "riding to* the west*" OR "rode to* the west*")

 

 

   Note that in the results charts the thus corrected hits for these biggest searches are shown in red. Since the changes were negligible no corrections need to be applied.

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   Regarding aircraft being the cause of many of the found sightings I say this. 1) Shapes are reported few of which are cigar (fuselage) shaped and have contrails-and those could still well be UAPs, 2) Just judging from the US flight activity there are probably more generally east-west flights than generally north-south flights because of the aspect ratio of the US proper as well as the locations of Hawaii and the Caribbean Islands. Further many overseas flights, although along polar routes, are at very high altitudes with continuous contrails and difficult shape detectability. These are contrary to the results.

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